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For me, the view of Google Wave is not what it should be, but what it could be. It may not solve a specific problem right now for a specific user or users, but it may well be the solution for another when an open, diverse group has time and exposure to it.
Turn it upside down, look at it from all angles; don't be confined by preconceived ideas about what it should be. I have no doubt that someone will adapt it for a use no one foresees. That's where the excitement is, for me.
It has already been beneficial to me from a collaborative POV. I'm a fan.
My general opinion of it is simple: too soon. It doesn't solve any problems that people have right now. Sure, in the future, it might get used. But the way to do that is to define the protocol, not the code, and certainly not the interface.
They're pushing too hard and trying too much and I just think that it'll end in miserable failure.
If the platform is never exposed then (as you indicated) it never will take off. But by giving people the chance to see what it's capable of and what possibilities are there to build on top of it, there are plenty of them who will take off and run with it.
Platforms are not sexy (except to hardcore geeks). No one got excited by TCP/IP until someone figured out how to create the WWW, which solved a lot of problems that many people didn't even know they had at the time. Just because you can't currently think of any problems that Wave solves for people now doesn't mean that there aren't problems out there for it to solve, or be part of the solution for.
Most of the people who are being let in the beta now are not developers, but they're there to give the developers who were already testing an example of what kind of load the platform can bear and how it deals with things for a larger group of people. It will eventually bear fruit.
I don't think that Google is pushing too hard... I think that people outside are expecting too much, especially at this stage. I can't imagine Wave being a failure. But I can imagine it becoming so much of a background technology that it seems to have faded away (because it's no longer a novelty, it just does what it's supposed to do).
Because let's face it: Wave the interface is crap. It works, and it implements most of the functionality, but it's slow, bloated, clunky, and ugly. Fine for devs (since we don't much care about that when testing things), but terrible for a demonstration.
IMO, they are pushing too hard because they released these invites at all. It's not ready for that. There's no functionality to demo. There's no interface to see. There is *still* no problems that it really solves.
Don't get me wrong, it's a neat idea, and there probably are problems that Wave is good for. Just because I can't think of them doesn't mean that they don't exist. But it's still *way* too soon. They should have invited more developers to come up with ideas for what to use it for, not this crowd of non-developers. That's what I meant. It's not ready for public consumption, this invite round is *way* premature.
And in that sense, yes, it can be a failure. Wave will be relegated to the dustbin if they keep trying to push it this much. Look at Google Base: It's still there, and useful, but almost nobody uses it because nobody can figure out WTF it's for. Premature release caused that.
It's not like this is public either. They sent out 100K invites on Wednesday and I'll bet even with the "nominations" they've approved that number probably hasn't hit 500K yet. That's a lot of people but it's not THAT many considering how many use the internet. If they were going to make it beta like Gmail was "beta" then I would be more critical. They're trying to work out the kinks and develop a useful client for it so that it actually will be something that solves problems for us when it's ready to come out of beta. That's a good strategy in my opinion.
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I can't wait to use Twave... Twitter being almost the only application the Google guys have built in themselves - ignoring the existence of Jaiku ...
Walter, @g2m